Qualifying Distribution within a Base
by Erik Grywalski
Note: The historical stock examples given in the link below are for EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY. They ARE NOT to be used to make buy/sell decisions in today's market. For more information, please read the HSR Terms of Use.
Qualifying Distribution within a Base is a technical concept that I use to supplement traditional base analysis.
In traditional base analysis, accumulation/distribution counts are one of the benchmarks used to determine a stock's health.
Generally speaking, if a stock has more accumulation than distribution weeks within its base, it's considered a positive for the stock.
Conversely, if a stock has more distribution than accumulation weeks within its base, it's viewed as a negative for the stock.
However, there have been many stocks with negative or neutral accumulation/distribution counts that went on to achieve solid gains.
With this in mind, how can base analysis be improved to help you?
One answer may be to use a qualification process that helps assess the significance of distribution within a base.
To qualify distribution within a base, you must have the following conditions present:
- Base showing more distribution than accumulation or an equal (neutral) amount of distribution and accumulation during a stock market uptrend.
- Weekly price thrust on heavy volume within prior uptrend (price should close in the upper half of the week's range).
Notes:
- The price thrust volume (prior uptrend) is used as a standard or benchmark against the distribution volume within the base.
- The price thrust high and low (range from the prior uptrend) should be close to the base trough or ideally, anchor/support the base's trough.
- Liquid stocks should be reviewed over low-priced/illiquid stocks.
- There may be other factors that you can add (ex. 1st correction of market uptrend) to the base qualification process that may help support a positive outcome for the base.
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